NBC Thinks So and Wants You to Think So Too Welcome to another edition of The Dobbs Digest, a newsletter of Confessions of a Truthaholic. Abortion may be the most most divisive and intractable topic in contemporary American politics. And the inflammatory rhetoric, which reached boiling point after Roe v. Wade was overturned in the summer of 2022, isn’t simmering down anytime soon. But most of what I read and hear is sky high on emotion but low on facts, so bear that in mind as you scroll. My sole purpose with this newsletter is to question the assumptions of the media narratives shaping abortion discourse and to unpack the actual issues raised in the courts to get us to a shared understanding of the reality on the ground. If you’re new to this newsletter, please read our welcome post here so you’re in the know. So glad to have you here. - Live Not By Lies, Just Publish Them On September 20, 2024, NBC published an article with the following headline: A dramatic rise in pregnant women dying in Texas after abortion ban: Exclusive analysis finds the rate of maternal deaths in Texas increased 56% from 2019 to 2022, compared with just 11% nationwide You can read the full article here: The article opens with the following text (bold emphasis my me): The number of women in Texas who died while pregnant, during labor or soon after childbirth skyrocketed following the state’s 2021 ban on abortion care — far outpacing a slower rise in maternal mortality across the nation, a new investigation of federal public health data finds. [The Texas Heartbeat Act-not an abortion ban-became effective September 1, 2021] From 2019 to 2022, the rate of maternal mortality cases in Texas rose by 56%, compared with just 11% nationwide during the same time period, according to an [unpublished] analysis by the Gender Equity Policy Institute [GEPI]. The nonprofit research group scoured publicly available reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and shared the analysis exclusively with NBC News. “There’s only one explanation for this staggering difference in maternal mortality,” said Nancy L. Cohen, president of the GEPI [Gender Equity Policy Institute]. “All the research points to Texas’ abortion ban as the primary driver of this alarming increase.” “Texas, I fear, is a harbinger of what’s to come in other states,” she said. Really, Nancy, really? Let’s pause and assess. The data shared with NBC and displayed in the graph below, was compiled by GEPI, so NBC’s graph doesn’t reference source data. The GEPI research isn’t published so we have no idea which data they “scoured,” the sources of said data, or the research methodology they use. For argument’s sake, let’s give the NBC and GEPI the benefit of the doubt and assume they’ve presented the data fairly and accurately. Among Hispanic women, the rate of women dying while pregnant, during childbirth or soon after increased from 14.5 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 2019 to 18.9 in 2022. Rates among white women nearly doubled — from 20 per 100,000 to 39.1. And Black women, who historically have higher chances of dying while pregnant, during childbirth or soon after, saw their rates go from 31.6 to 43.6 per 100,000 live births. While maternal mortality spiked overall during the pandemic, women dying while pregnant or during childbirth rose consistently in Texas following the state’s ban on abortion, according to the Gender Equity Policy Institute. “If you deny women abortions, more women are going to be pregnant, and more women are going to be forced to carry a pregnancy to term,” Cohen said. [Wow, that’s deep.] Per the article, maternal mortality rates increased in Texas from 2019-2020 and again from 2020-2021. But it looks like they went down from 2021-2022? I’m confused, the article claims that maternal mortality rates skyrocketed after the Texas Heartbeat Law took effect on September 1, 2021, right? Hmmm … Did you just look at the same graph I did? Per NBC’s own data, maternal mortality rates in Texas took a nosedive from 2021-2022, AFTER the Texas Heartbeat Act went into effect. That’s not quite the same at a 56% increase now is it?

The Devil’s In the Details

In response to this article, demographer, Lyman Stone (@LymanStoneKY on X), gathered data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data on CDC WONDER and ran some new reports. Stone looked at all deaths related to childbirth and pregnancy to ensure the broadest possible net; GEPI, per Stone, uses a much narrower definition. He presented his findings in a series of posts on X, which are very informative and worth the read. And, shout out to Secular Pro-Life for putting Stone’s work on my radar! Stone explained that to get an accurate read on the data, he separated the Texas stats for pregnancy-related deaths comorbid with COVID from pregnancy-related deaths not comorbid with COVID. With this key tweak, the data presents differently from that of the NBC piece. For additional transparency, Stone also overlays the data on a timeline highlighting the beginning of the Texas Heartbeat Law’s effective date (September 1, 2024) and the overturning of Roe v. Wade (June 24, 2022) It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the trends in pregnancy-related deaths (deaths in any way related to childbirth or pregnancy) from 2018 to 2022 (with COVID and without). I’m still trying to find the 56% increase in deaths post-September 2021. Also, given NBC’s claim that Texas deaths were significantly higher than the rest of the country, Stone also ran similar reports for maternal deaths in the “pro-choice” states across New England to see if he could establish any trends to support NBC’s claims. His reports are also on X if you’d like to dive deeper. For this piece, I’m going to stay focused on Texas.

Back to NBC’s headline …

A dramatic rise in pregnant women dying in Texas after abortion ban: Exclusive analysis finds the rate of maternal deaths in Texas increased 56% from 2019 to 2022, compared with just 11% nationwide If we forget about Stone’s data and focus only on NBC’s, I think there’s a typo in their headline … the word “after” should be the word “before.” A dramatic rise in pregnant women dying in Texas before abortion ban: Exclusive analysis finds the rate of maternal deaths in Texas increased 56% from 2019 to 2022, compared with just 11% nationwide There you go NBC, I fixed it for you! All better now.