By: Walter Russell Mead - wsj.com - October 27, 2025

The steady buildup of Chinese military power in the South China Sea and around the Taiwan Strait allows Beijing to step up military pressure on American allies. Chinese cyberespionage and hacking capabilities allow it to steal commercial and security secrets from the U.S. and lesser powers.

Meanwhile, China’s long march to dominate the production and refining of rare-earth minerals has given Mr. Xi an important card to play in the U.S. trade war. Rare earths aren’t Mr. Xi’s only trump card. China’s manufacturing dominance in everything from green technology to pharmaceuticals creates important dependencies across the West. Fears of losing access to China’s consumer market drive many important Western companies to lobby their governments on China’s behalf.

But Mr. Trump also has some high cards, and, as always, it would be a mistake to underestimate both the strength of his position and his capacity for bold moves that increase his leverage in unexpected ways.