Kerby Anderson

One of the common mistakes among Christians is to assume that the future will be merely an extension of the present. We might assume there will be some changes, but often we can’t imagine the world changing as much as it has.

We need to understand some of the dynamic changes in our world. That is why I have written two booklets about “American Realignment” and “American Political Realignment.” The former looks at demographic and economic changes that have been taking place. The latter deals with government and the political process.

Recently, William Galston wrote that “The American Political Realignment is Real.” He worked in numerous Democratic presidential campaigns and served as the deputy assistant for domestic policy for President Bill Clinton. His commentary to his fellow Democrats is that the Trump election may indeed be a political realignment.

For example, the Republican Party “increased its vote share in three consecutive presidential elections in 1,433 counties, nearly half the national total.” By contrast, the Democratic Party “increased its share in all three elections in only 57 counties.”

To illustrate the change, he looked deeper at two states: Texas and New York. Although Democrats dreamed of turning Texas blue, “124 counties have tilted further right since 2012, while only two counties have tilted further left.” New York has long been a blue bastion. Nevertheless, “43 of the state’s 62 counties showed Republican gains of 10 percentage points or more between 2012 and 2024, and Democrats’ statewide victory margin shrunk by half.”

His commentary looks at other changes in the minority votes (black and Hispanic) that show a similar shift. A shift in voting in one election may not mean much. But his analysis suggests a significant shift and realignment in the future. Political candidates need to take note.