Kerby Anderson

Now that most of the 2022 midterm elections have been certified, it’s worth looking at some important electoral trends. They will give us some idea of what may take place in the 2024 elections. Lest you think this is premature, consider that next month the first presidential debate will take place.

The most surprising trend is the number of close elections. In previous commentaries, I’ve talked about close elections. But the latest results are worth discussing. The bipartisan portal Ballotpedia reports that 103 legislative races around the country were decided by under 100 votes.

This research result underscores the reality of the phrase “every vote counts.” If you don’t think so, just ask the person who lost their race by less than 100 votes. As one commentator put it, these races were decided by the number of people you could find inside a Walmart any weekend.

Rarely is there a close race for governor or congress. But close elections do occur in state legislative races, where 98 seats were decided by such a narrow margin. And that narrow margin also could determine which party has majority control of the legislature. Many of the other close races occurred in rural districts with small populations.

Two implications come from these results from the 2022 midterm elections. First, there is great value in a political party developing sophisticated “get out the vote” strategies. When a tiny minority can determine the outcome of an election, there is great motivation to get people to the polls. Second, it illustrates the importance of you going to vote and bringing like-minded people with you to the polls.

Each election, we remind people that “every vote counts.” This latest research proves that is true.