Kerby Anderson

Perhaps you have heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect. I have talked about it in previous commentaries. David Dunning and Justin Kruger identified it as a phenomenon that occurs when people who don’t know much, think they know much more. They tend to overestimate their own competence. As one person asked: Why do dumb people think they are smart?

Columnist Jim Geraghty thought about this the other day when reading the coverage by the New York Times of how Barack Obama and his team were completely blindsided by the rise and election of Donald Trump. You might have even seen the collection of videos from 2016 by leading political figures guaranteeing that Trump had zero chance of being nominated, much less being elected.

What is striking is how the president and his team could not see the populist disenchantment with the establishment and the concerns over globalization. They also saw the outcome of the election as being a direct rebuke of what they have been trying to do during the Obama administration.

The Gallup poll in 2016 had twice as many Americans saying they were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the United States. But the media and politicians couldn’t see the shift.

We see this in other administrations. President Trump refused to believe he lost of the 2020 election. President Biden announced in 2024 that the U.S. has the world best economy. A year ago, President Trump said the U.S. was moving into “a golden age.” Most presidents lack any true humility and make matters worse by surrounding themselves with sycophants who praise their actions.

Each of these presidents were convinced they were doing a terrific job, while most Americans were expressing their concerns about the direction of the country.